2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
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The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett ran for re-election to a second term but was defeated by the Democratic nominee, Tom Wolf.[1] Corbett was the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose reelection since William Bigler in 1854.[2]
Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track".[3]Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the United States,[4]The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch,[5] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".
Despite Corbett's unpopularity and speculation that he would face a primary challenge,[6] he was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Democrats nominated businessman and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue Tom Wolf, who defeated U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz, Pennsylvania Treasurer Robert McCord and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Kathleen McGinty in the primary election.[7]
In primary elections for lieutenant governor, which were held separately, incumbent Republican lieutenant governor Jim Cawley was renominated unopposed, and the Democrats selected State Senator Michael J. Stack III.
Contents
1 Background
2 Republican primary
2.1 Candidates
2.1.1 Declared
2.1.2 Disqualified
2.1.3 Declined
2.2 Endorsements
2.3 Polling
2.4 Results
3 Democratic primary
3.1 Candidates
3.1.1 Declared
3.1.2 Withdrew
3.1.3 Declined
3.2 Endorsements
3.3 Polling
3.4 Results
4 General election
4.1 Candidates
4.2 Debates
4.3 Spending
4.4 Predictions
4.5 Polling
4.6 Results
4.7 By congressional district
5 See also
6 References
7 External links
Background
Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010.[8] This has been referred to as "the cycle",[9][10] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860.[11] The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms.[12] Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.
Republican primary
Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot.[13]NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with Re-Elect Tom Corbett placed on his truck.
Candidates
Declared
Tom Corbett, incumbent governor of Pennsylvania
Disqualified
Bob Guzzardi, attorney, businessman and conservative activist[14][15]
Declined
Bruce Castor, Montgomery County Commissioner[16]
Jim Gerlach, U.S. Representative and candidate for governor in 2010[17]
Tom Smith, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[18]
Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator[19]
Endorsements
| Tom Corbett |
|---|
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Polling
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tom Corbett (Incumbent) | 373,465 | 100 | |
| Total votes | 373,465 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Robert McCord, Pennsylvania Treasurer[53]
Kathleen McGinty, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection[54]
Allyson Schwartz, U.S. Representative[55]
Tom Wolf, businessman and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue[56]
Withdrew
John Hanger, former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection[57][58]
Jo Ellen Litz, Lebanon County Commissioner (failed to qualify)[59][60]
- Max Myers, businessman and former pastor[61][62]
Ed Pawlowski, Mayor of Allentown[63][64]
Jack Wagner, former Pennsylvania Auditor General, candidate for governor in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Pittsburgh in 2013[65]
Declined
Bob Casey, Jr., U.S. Senator[66]
Scott Conklin, state representative and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010[67][68]
Kathy Dahlkemper, former U.S. Representative[69]
Eugene DePasquale, Pennsylvania Auditor General[70]
Kathleen Kane, Pennsylvania Attorney General[71]
Tom Knox, businessman, candidate for Mayor of Philadelphia in 2007 and candidate for governor in 2010[72]
Daylin Leach, state senator (running for Congress)[73]
Patrick Murphy, former U.S. Representative[74]
Michael Nutter, Mayor of Philadelphia[75]
Ed Rendell, former governor[76]
Joe Sestak, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[77]
Josh Shapiro, chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners[78]
Tim Solobay, state senator[74][79]
Michael J. Stack III, state senator (running for lieutenant governor)[80]
Endorsements
| Robert McCord |
|---|
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| Kathleen McGinty |
|---|
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| Ed Pawlowski |
|---|
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| Allyson Schwartz |
|---|
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| Tom Wolf |
|---|
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Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Hanger | Tom Knox | Jo Ellen Litz | Robert McCord | Kathleen McGinty | Max Myers | Ed Pawl- owski | Allyson Schwartz | Joe Sestak | Tim Solobay | Mike Stack | Jack Wagner | Tom Wolf | Other | Unde- cided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Muhlenberg | May 13–15, 2014 | 414 | ±5% | — | — | — | 11% | 7% | — | — | 16% | — | — | — | — | 41% | — | 25% |
Harper | May 12–13, 2014 | 559 | ±4.14% | — | — | — | 15% | 5% | — | — | 15% | — | — | — | — | 50% | — | 16% |
F&M College | May 6–12, 2014 | 530 | ±4.3% | — | — | — | 11% | 6% | — | — | 19% | — | — | — | — | 41% | 3% | 20% |
Muhlenberg | April 28–30, 2014 | 417 | ±5% | — | — | — | 13% | 3% | — | — | 14% | — | — | — | — | 42% | — | 28% |
GQR** | Mar. 31–Apr. 3, 2014 | 600 | ±? | — | — | — | 14% | 5% | — | — | 12% | — | — | — | — | 52% | — | 16% |
F&M College | March 25–31, 2014 | 524 | ±4.3% | — | — | — | 8% | 6% | — | — | 9% | — | — | — | — | 40% | 6% | 31% |
Harper | Feb. 22–23, 2014 | 501 | ±4.38% | 7% | — | — | 8% | 6% | — | — | 14% | — | — | — | 7% | 40% | — | 19% |
F&M College | Feb. 18–23, 2014 | 548 | ±4.2% | 1% | — | — | 3% | 1% | — | — | 9% | — | — | — | — | 36% | 1% | 48% |
PPP | Nov. 22–25, 2013 | 436 | ±4.7% | 8% | — | 2% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 21% | — | — | — | 17% | 2% | — | 27% |
Harper | Nov. 9–10, 2013 | 649 | ±3.85% | 7% | — | — | 12% | 15% | — | 6% | 22% | — | — | — | — | 5% | — | 34% |
GHY^ | Aug. 27–29, 2013 | 506 | ± 4.4% | — | — | — | 6% | 6% | — | — | 25% | — | — | — | — | 6% | — | 57% |
BSG* | July 16–18, 2013 | 800 | ±3.46% | — | — | — | 10% | 15% | — | — | 34% | — | — | — | — | 11% | — | 30% |
Quinnipiac | May 30–Jun. 4, 2013 | 460 | ± 4.6% | 1% | — | — | 4% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 18% | — | — | 1% | — | 2% | 1% | 63% |
Quinnipiac | April 19–24, 2013 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 0% | — | — | 3% | — | — | 1% | 15% | 15% | — | 1% | — | 3% | 2% | 60% |
GSG | March 9–12, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 1% | — | — | 5% | 5% | — | 3% | 18% | 15% | 3% | 1% | — | 2% | — | 47% |
| 1% | — | — | 7% | 7% | — | 3% | 21% | — | 3% | 2% | — | 2% | — | 54% | ||||
| — | — | — | 12% | — | — | — | 31% | — | — | — | — | 7% | — | 49% | ||||
GQR** | March 2–7, 2013 | 602 | ±3.99% | 1% | 1% | — | 7% | 3% | — | — | 16% | 21% | — | 2% | — | 3% | 1% | 45% |
Harper | Feb. 27–28, 2013 | ? | ±? | 0.82% | 2.88% | — | 7% | — | — | — | 18.52% | 19.75% | — | — | — | 1.23% | — | 49.79% |
- ** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf Campaign
- ^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty Campaign
- * Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz Campaign
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tom Wolf | 488,917 | 57.86 | |
Democratic | Allyson Schwartz | 149,027 | 17.64 | |
Democratic | Robert McCord | 142,311 | 16.84 | |
Democratic | Kathleen McGinty | 64,754 | 7.66 | |
| Total votes | 845,009 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Tom Wolf (D); former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue
- Tom Corbett (R); incumbent governor
- Paul Glover (G); activist
- Ken Krawchuk (L); technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2002
Debates
Complete video of debate, September 22, 2014
Complete video of debate, October 8, 2014
Spending
As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million.[134]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[135] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[136] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report[137] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics[138] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tom Corbett (R) | Tom Wolf (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Muhlenberg College | October 27–29, 2014 | 409 | ± 5% | 39% | 51% | 6% | 4% |
Magellan Strategies | October 27–28, 2014 | 1,433 | ± 2.6% | 43.3% | 49.6% | — | 7.1% |
Harper Polling | October 26–27, 2014 | 680 | ± 3.76% | 40% | 50% | — | 10% |
Franklin & Marshall | October 20–26, 2014 | 326 LV | ± 5.1% | 40% | 53% | 1% | 5% |
| 738 RV | ± 3.4% | 37% | 53% | 1% | 9% | ||
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 3,111 | ± 3% | 39% | 52% | 0% | 8% |
Magellan Strategies | October 13–14, 2014 | 1,131 | ± 2.9% | 42.2% | 49.1% | — | 8.7% |
Quinnipiac University | September 30–October 5, 2014 | 907 | ± 3.3% | 38% | 55% | 2% | 5% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 3,283 | ± 2% | 41% | 50% | 0% | 9% |
Robert Morris University | September 26–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4% | 33.8% | 56.8% | — | 9.4% |
Mercyhurst University | September 15–24, 2014 | 479 | ± 4.48% | 28% | 43% | 2% | 27% |
Franklin & Marshall | September 15–22, 2014 | 231 LV | ± 6.4% | 37% | 57% | 2% | 5% |
| 520 RV | ± 4.3% | 33% | 54% | 4% | 9% | ||
Magellan Strategies | September 17–18, 2014 | 1,120 | ± 2.9% | 40% | 48.6% | — | 11.4% |
Muhlenberg College | September 16–18, 2014 | 429 | ± 5% | 33% | 54% | 4% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University | September 3–8, 2014 | 1,161 | ± 2.9% | 35% | 59% | 2% | 4% |
Harper Polling | September 2–3, 2014 | 665 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 52% | — | 7% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 3,560 | ± 2% | 39% | 50% | 2% | 10% |
Robert Morris University | August 18–22, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 24.7% | 55.5% | — | 19.8% |
Franklin & Marshall | August 18–25, 2014 | 520 | ± 4.3% | 24% | 49% | 1% | 25% |
Magellan Strategies | July 30–31, 2014 | 1,214 | ± 2.83% | 38.1% | 50.3% | — | 11.6% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 4,150 | ± ? | 39% | 52% | 2% | 7% |
Franklin & Marshall | June 23–29, 2014 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 25% | 47% | 1% | 27% |
Quinnipiac University | May 29–June 2, 2014 | 1,308 | ± 2.7% | 33% | 53% | 1% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30–June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 55% | — | 15% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 27–28, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 31% | 51% | 4% | 14% |
Quinnipiac University | February 19–24, 2014 | 1,405 | ± 2.6% | 33% | 52% | 1% | 13% |
Gravis Marketing | January 22–23, 2014 | 717 | ± 4% | 34% | 41% | — | 24% |
Quinnipiac University | December 11–16, 2013 | 1,061 | ± 3% | 37% | 44% | 1% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling | November 22–25, 2013 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 32% | 44% | — | 24% |
Quinnipiac University | March 6–11, 2013 | 1,116 | ± 2.9% | 39% | 39% | 2% | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | March 8–10, 2013 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 33% | 42% | — | 25% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–6, 2013 | 675 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 29% | — | 30% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tom Wolf/Michael J. Stack III | 1,920,355 | 54.93% | +9.42% | |
Republican | Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley (incumbent) | 1,575,511 | 45.07% | -9.42% | |
| Total votes | 3,495,866 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
By congressional district
Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf.[140]
| District | Corbett | Wolf | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
1st | 16% | 84% | Bob Brady |
2nd | 8% | 92% | Chaka Fattah |
3rd | 54% | 46% | Mike Kelly |
4th | 56% | 44% | Scott Perry |
5th | 51% | 49% | Glenn Thompson |
6th | 49% | 51% | Jim Gerlach |
Ryan Costello | |||
7th | 48% | 52% | Patrick Meehan |
8th | 48% | 52% | Mike Fitzpatrick |
9th | 55% | 45% | Bill Shuster |
10th | 59% | 41% | Tom Marino |
11th | 53% | 47% | Lou Barletta |
12th | 53% | 47% | Keith Rothfus |
13th | 30% | 70% | Brendan Boyle |
14th | 30% | 70% | Michael F. Doyle |
15th | 50% | 50% | Charlie Dent |
16th | 54% | 46% | Joe Pitts |
17th | 39% | 61% | Matt Cartwright |
18th | 54% | 46% | Tim Murphy |
See also
- Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2014
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2014
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2014
References
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^ http://articles.philly.com/2014-11-06/news/56395405_1_exit-polls-mount-wolf-democrat-tom-wolf
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^ Madonna, Terry. "The Eight-Year Cycle - Believe It!". Franklin & Marshall College.
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^ Pennsylvania Constitution article IV, § 3.
^ Jackson, Peter (1 May 2014). "Corbett's GOP foe Bob Guzzardi ordered off Pa. primary ballot". The Delaware County Daily Times. Retrieved 21 May 2014.
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^ Brittany Foster (May 1, 2014). "Supreme Court Strikes Guzzardi From PA-Gov Ballot". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
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^ Foster, Brittany (January 6, 2013). "Breaking: Rep. Gerlach Will Not Seek Reelection". PoliticsPA. Retrieved January 6, 2013.
^ Gibson, Keegan (March 12, 2013). "Tom Smith Not Running for Governor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved March 13, 2013.
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^ "Corbett-Cawley Campaign Endorsed by U.S. Senator Pat Toomey". December 20, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
^ "Three Former PA Governors Endorse Corbett in Hershey". PoliticsPA. November 12, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
^ ab "Three Former PA Governors Endorse Corbett in Hershey". PoliticsPA. November 12, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
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^ "PHILADELPHIA GOP CHAIRMAN JOHN TAYLOR STATEMENT ON IMPROVING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNDER CORBETT ADMINISTRATION LEADERSHIP". March 21, 2014. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
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^ "PA-Gov Round-Up: Endorsements, Coalitions and More". Retrieved November 15, 2014.
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^ "PA-Gov Round-Up: Candidates Score Endorsements, Build Coalitions". Retrieved November 15, 2014.
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^ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
^ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
^ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
^ https://electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=41&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0
^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
External links
Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia
Campaign contributions at FollowTheMoney.org
- Official campaign websites
Tom Corbett for Governor Republican (Archived)
Tom Wolf for Governor Democrat (Archived)
